Accurate Projections for Renewable Energy Development: Wind Power as a Case Study

There is a historic level of historical ignorance when it comes to forecasting renewable energy development. The traditional institution involved in projecting energy growth, the International Energy Agency (IEA), has been consistently and magnificently wrong in predicting levels of growth for the renewable energy sector. The story of the IEA's wind power projections versus actual installments is a disturbing revelation for those who consider the IEA to be a legitimate and reliable source of information for the energy industry. At the same time, the Wind Power example is vindication for those who believe that renewable energy sources are not "alternative" solutions for providing energy but rather "the mainstream" solution.

The Energy Watch Group, a network of international scientists and parliamentarians, recently released a report entitled, "Wind Power in Context – A Clean Revolution in the Energy Sector".

The report included the following findings:

- "Wind power net capacity additions over the last ten years (1998-2007) have showed a mean growth rate of 30.4 percent per year, corresponding to a doubling of net additions every 2½ years.

- "In 2007, net capacity additions reached 19553 Megawatts, a level that most energy pundits failed to anticipate. Net additions, in 2007, were 417 percent bigger than the mean estimate published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), in its World Energy Outlook 1995-2004 editions.

- In the IEA’s most recent World Energy Outlook (2008) scenario, it again predicts a low growth “reference scenario” for wind power with only a 2.2 percent increase of annual wind capacity additions over the 2010-2030 period.

- "The IEA acknowledges that the “risk of a supply crunch” for oil after 2010 could be
”driving up oil prices – possibly to new record highs”, but then fails to revise its forecasts for renewable energies".

TO RECAP:

Wind power net capacity has grown at 30.4% per year from 1998 - 2007, with total net additions being 417% percent bigger than the mean estimate published by the IEA during this time period. And yet, the IEA's most recent projection calls for a 2.2% increase of annual wind capacity in the next 20 years!?

Why doesn't the IEA believe in wind? How hard is it to see that wind has been one of the primary growth industries worldwide. The demand for wind turbines has been so huge that the wait for turbines from a manufacturer was taking up to two years. The point is simple; wind projects are "shovel-ready" and a great way to 'stimulate' economices. Putting money into established renewable energy sources like wind is a proven way to create jobs and earn returns on investment and the renewable sector deserves a large share of stimulus dollars.